What wall street should've known about michael kors


By 2011, michael kors stores were everywhere and the designer's iconic"Mk"Branding was unmistakable.We were almost guaranteed to find someone carrying a michael kors shopping bag in america's malls on any given day, but in early 2013, we spotted cheap michael kors bags a change in buyer appetite for the famous handbag and accessories retailer.

In january 2013 we noticed a decline in the number of mk shopping bags making their way around the mall despite a growing store footprint.Wall street was unaware.In fact, the stock jumped in early 2014 and continued to perform well for at least half of the year, despite fewer and fewer shoppers toting the store's bags.Then in q1 2015, the company reported its first comparable store sales decrease.

Perhaps this is proof that one of the best ways to find a new investment angle on the retail sector is in a shopping mall.There's only so much that can be accomplished from a desk.Most experts visit the malls periodically, usually around a major holiday.We're in the malls every day, tracking spending patterns and promotional trends for the latest fashion.As part of the merchant forecast research, about eight years ago, we implemented a simple, but telling, practice of monitoring the branded store bags carried by each shopper.

We take a tally every month and the numbers often indicate who among retailers is in favor with america's shoppers.

For june, the top 10 bags in shopper's hands were(As percentage of total michael kors online outlet bags):

Victoria's secret(9.3%)

Forever 21(8.9%) cheap michael kors

Bath body works(4.5%)

H(4.5%)

American eagle outfitters(3.6%)

Old navy(3.1%)Gap(2.7%)

Now, how does it work and what does it all mean?

The merchant forecast team member counting the bags is stationed at a crowded gathering point in the mall.Then the person taking the tally and writes down the first 30 bags he or she sees.

It's important to note two things:1)We don't track department store bags given the potential to skew the results in favor of the anchor stores and 2)The number of stores in malls can weigh heavily on the numbers.That means that as popular as apple apple is, it's not in nearly as many locations as abercrombie fitch.The same applies to the popular athleisure brand lululemon.

Special offer:Earn income and total return selling options.Closed trades produced an average 36% annualized return.

The bag count practice is predictive on different levels.It can help give us a sense of consumer confidence.Are they spending at more aspirational retailers?And on sector specific levels it's particularly useful.Take for instance teen retailers that in recent years have owned a bigger portion of the count.We've even seen positive and negative shifts in popularity in menswear, home goods and handbags and accessories.

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